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In competition, a lead is never final. Sometimes it is even the leader who devalues it. The story of HMS Dreadnought shows how a single innovation resets the rules of the game and forces everyone involved into a costly race in which, in the end, no one wins for good – the Red Queen Effect at sea.
A ship that changes everything
Situation
Admiral John Fisher, First Sea Lord of the Royal Navy since October 1904, wanted a battleship with uniform heavy armament and high speed. In January 1905, he convened a design committee. On October 2, 1905, the keel of the Dreadnought was laid in Portsmouth; on February 10, 1906, King Edward VII launched the ship, and in December 1906 it was commissioned. The Dreadnought carried 10 heavy 12-inch guns in five turrets. It was the first large warship powered by steam turbines and, when completed, the fastest battleship in the world.
Link to the principle
A single advance shifts the standard for everyone. What was top of the line yesterday is outdated tomorrow. That is exactly what the Red Queen Effect describes.
Your own lead devalued
Situation
At a stroke, all older battleships were considered obsolete. From then on, they were called pre-dreadnoughts, that is, ships from the time before the Dreadnought. Until then, Britain had built according to the principle of being stronger than the next two largest fleets combined. In the new class, it now had a single ship.
Link to the principle
The British knew that other navies were planning similar ships. If you don’t take the next step yourself, you leave it to your opponent. So Britain took it, and in doing so devalued its own fleet. That is the bitter logic of the Red Queen Effect: you have to run, even if the running costs you your lead.
Germany follows suit
Situation
Under Alfred von Tirpitz, state secretary of the Imperial Naval Office, the German Empire had already begun building a large battle fleet. As early as the fall of 1905, Tirpitz decided to follow suit, and Germany built its own capital ships on the new pattern. The race heightened the tensions between the two countries. In 1909, in a full-blown naval scare, the British public demanded eight new capital ships. The government had at first wanted to build only four right away.
Link to the principle
Every improvement by one side worsens the situation of the other and forces it to respond. Just as with predators and prey in biology, a race develops in which both run faster and faster.
A race without a winner
Situation
Soon even more powerful ships followed, called super-dreadnoughts. They made the Dreadnought itself look old. When war broke out in 1914, Britain had 29 battleships and battlecruisers of the new type, Germany, depending on how they are counted, 17 to 22. In the First World War, the Dreadnought took part in only one significant action: on March 18, 1915, it rammed and sank the German submarine U-29. It missed the Battle of Jutland in 1916 because it was in the dockyard. In 1921, it was sold for scrap.
Link to the principle
Britain kept its lead, but at enormous cost. The ship that had set off the race was itself overtaken within a few years. The Red Queen Effect does not reward a lead, only running on and on.
Was there another way?
Situation
Whether Britain could have done without the Dreadnought is disputed. Other navies were working on similar designs at the same time: Japan had laid down the Satsuma a few months earlier, and the United States ordered the ships of the South Carolina class in 1906. The naval arms race was one of several causes of the hostility between Britain and Germany before 1914, but not the only one.
Link to the principle
The Red Queen Effect explains why participants in such races can hardly get out. But it also shows the price. Where the logic of the arms race prevails, it pays to look for agreements that limit the race.
Key takeaways
Key lessons
- Assume that any lead can be devalued by an innovation.
- Take the next step yourself rather than leaving it to the competition.
- Check what constantly keeping up is costing you.
- Be prepared for your improvement to provoke a response.
- Look for ways to limit a ruinous race.
Summary
With HMS Dreadnought, Britain made all older battleships obsolete in 1906, including its own. Its lead shrank to one ship, and Germany followed suit. A costly arms race followed, in which the Dreadnought itself was soon overtaken. The story shows the Red Queen Effect in its purest form: in competition, you stay ahead only by running on, and the running never stops.
