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The 1990 film “The Hunt for Red October” is based on Tom Clancy’s 1984 novel. It is directed by John McTiernan, with Sean Connery as the Soviet captain Marko Ramius and Alec Baldwin as the CIA analyst Jack Ryan. Set in the Cold War, the film is an object lesson in how dangerous things become when two sides cannot recognize each other’s intentions – an example of the Security Dilemma.
A boat no one can hear
Situation
The Red October is a new Soviet ballistic missile submarine with an almost silent propulsion system. Passive sonar can barely detect it. A missile submarine that no one can hear could approach the opponent’s coast unnoticed. That is exactly what makes it so threatening to the other side.
Link to the principle
This is the root of the Security Dilemma. A weapon meant to strengthen one’s own deterrence looks like an offensive weapon to the other side. The better it is, the greater the opponent’s fear, and the stronger the urge to arm or to act early.
The lie that makes both sides nervous
Situation
Ramius slips away with his boat. The Soviet leadership learns of his plan and sends its fleet into the Atlantic to stop him. The Soviet ambassador tells the U.S. government that Ramius is a renegade who wants to attack America. The United States sees a large Soviet fleet heading for its coast and puts its own forces on alert.
Link to the principle
Both sides act to protect themselves. The Soviet Union wants its boat back; the United States wants to protect its coast. But every move by one side looks to the other like preparation for an attack. The fleets face each other, even though neither side wants war.
An analyst reads the intention
Situation
Jack Ryan knows Ramius from files. He suspects not an attack but a defection. His superiors have their doubts. Ryan has to prove what no one can see: what Ramius actually intends. He travels to the American submarine Dallas, whose sonar operator has tracked down the Red October.
Link to the principle
The Security Dilemma arises because capabilities are visible but intentions are not. Ryan’s work is the attempt to read the intention behind the capability. He asks not what the boat can do but what the man on board wants.
Contact instead of torpedoes
Situation
Ryan and the crew of the Dallas finally make contact with Ramius. Instead of firing, they offer him help, and Ramius accepts the offer. A Soviet attack submarine attacks with torpedoes anyway and in the end is destroyed by its own torpedo.
Link to the principle
Here, a simple step leads out of the spiral: direct communication. Only when both sides talk to each other does the presumed attacker become an ally. If you keep looking only at capabilities, you end up shooting at the wrong man.
What the film shows and what it doesn’t
Situation
The film is a work of fiction and lets the crisis end without disaster. It tells the story as a thriller with clear heroes.
Link to the principle
In reality, there is rarely a Jack Ryan who reads the other side’s intentions in time. That is why arrangements such as hotlines between governments are so important. They replace the hero with a structure.
Key takeaways
Key lessons
- What is protection for you can look like an attack to others.
- Others see your moves, not your reasons.
- Ask about the intention behind a capability before you react.
- Direct contact can stop a spiral faster than any countermeasure.
- Build channels before you need them in a crisis.
Summary
“The Hunt for Red October” tells of a crisis in which two superpowers set their fleets in motion, each to protect itself and each fearing that the other is planning an attack. Only when an analyst reads the defector’s intention and both sides make direct contact is the situation defused. In this way, the film shows the Security Dilemma and the way out of it.
Sources
- Tom Clancy: The Hunt for Red October. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press 1984.
- The Hunt for Red October, U.S. 1990, directed by John McTiernan.
- John H. Herz: Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma. In: World Politics 2 (1950), No. 2, pp. 157–180.
