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80Principle · Group 9

Emergent Strategy

Emergent vs. deliberate strategy

“Strategy is not only what you plan but also the pattern that emerges in your actions; if you recognize it in time, you can learn from it.”

Not every strategy is planned. Your intended strategy is what you set out to do.

Group 9: Markets and OrganizationsT6 Business Strategy
Go to the in-depth section ↓
From above: a straight teal line across a surface; many small dots set off and veer diagonally toward a mist-blue circle that the line does not touch. From their tracks a gold trail condenses, part of the straight line fades, and a frame settles around the gold trail.
In short

Strategy is not only what you plan but also the pattern that emerges in your actions; if you recognize it in time, you can learn from it.

What it’s about: Not every strategy is planned. Your intended strategy is what you set out to do. Your realized strategy is what you actually do over time. The two rarely match. Part of the plan is never carried out, and part of what happens was never planned: it results from many individual decisions. This part is called emergent strategy.

In depth

The principle in detail

Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.

The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
In essence

Strategy is revealed not only in the plan but also in the pattern of what you actually do. If you see this pattern, you can learn from it.

It does not say
That you can do without planning. Without a mission, values and capabilities, you lack the yardstick against which to test patterns.
It does not say
That every impulse is a pattern. If you follow every whim and call it learning, you are mistaking restlessness for strategy.
It also says
Inventing in hindsight a plan that never existed leads to the wrong lessons for the future.
The explanationNo one can fully foresee the future.

No one can fully foresee the future.

Customers, people and circumstances react differently than expected, and often the people at the edges of an organization know sooner than its leaders what works.

Good leadership recognizes such patterns, tests them against its mission and turns the viable ones into its deliberate course. It is also worth looking at patterns that do harm: in families, habits that no one ever decided on shape life together, for better or worse.

The question

What do your actual actions reveal, and have you noticed it yet?

The signs3 signs when you heed it · 3 when you overlook it
When you heed it
  • You regularly compare the plan with what you actually do.
  • You ask people close to customers and to the work what is going better than expected.
  • You make proven patterns binding and deliberately end others.
When you overlook it
  • You treat everything unexpected as a disruption of the plan.
  • Or you stop planning altogether and follow every impulse.
  • After the fact, you present successes as the result of a plan that never existed.
The backgroundFrom the article “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent” by Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters (1985). · T6 Business Strategy
  1. 1985
    OriginHenry Mintzberg and James A. Waters

    Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent

  2. 1987
    SupplementedHenry Mintzberg

    Crafting Strategy

  3. Tradition T6
    TraditionBusiness Strategy

    Michael E. Porter, Richard P. Rumelt, Henry Mintzberg, Clayton M. Christensen, W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne

    See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background

From the article “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent” by Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters (1985). Supplemented by Henry Mintzberg’s “Crafting Strategy” (1987) and the debate about Honda’s success in the United States.

The research3 sources: 2 theories, 1 case study · 1984–1987 · with limitations of the research
3 sources1984–1987 period2 theories1 case study
Strength of evidence
  1. weak
  2. moderate
  3. strong

The distinction is conceptually well developed and derived from cases; the sources do not measure whether recognizing patterns leads to better results, and the flagship example, Honda, is disputed.

  1. 1984
    Case study
    Richard T. Pascale

    Honda’s success in the United States as the result of mistakes and rapid learning, contrary to the Boston Consulting Group’s interpretation of it as planned.

  2. 1985
    Theory
    Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters

    “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent”: a spectrum from purely deliberate to purely emergent; in between, for example, planned, entrepreneurial, ideological and umbrella strategies.

  3. 1987
    Theory
    Henry Mintzberg

    “Crafting Strategy”: strategy emerges the way it does for a potter, through working with the material.

Where the research reaches its limits
  • Emergent strategy does not replace direction.
  • In hindsight, it is hard to separate what was luck, what was judgment and what was plan; even the Honda case is still interpreted in different ways today.
  • Where mistakes are very costly, for example in matters of safety or large investments, careful planning often remains indispensable.
  • That recognizing patterns in time leads to better learning is plausible but has not been measured.
Read more: what research shows

In 1985, Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters described deliberate and emergent strategies as the two ends of a spectrum. Real strategies lie in between, and the authors place planned, entrepreneurial, ideological and umbrella strategies, among others, in this range. In an umbrella strategy, leadership sets the framework, and the details emerge along the way. In 1987, Henry Mintzberg spread the idea with the image of a potter who arrives at new forms while working with the clay. The principle became widely known through the dispute over Honda’s success in the United States: in 1975, the Boston Consulting Group explained it as a deliberate offensive, while in 1984 Richard T. Pascale explained it as the result of mistakes and rapid learning. Igor Ansoff defended deliberate planning against Henry Mintzberg.

The related principles19 Fog of Uncertainty · 21 Plan and Adaptation · 22 Mission Command · 79 Exploration and Exploitation
Plan and AdaptationMission Command

To go deeper, see 21 Plan and Adaptation (a plan combined with the willingness to change it along the way) and 22 Mission Command (setting the objective and framework creates room for useful patterns from below)

Fog of Uncertainty

19 Fog of Uncertainty explains why part of every strategy emerges only in action

Exploration and Exploitation

79 Exploration and Exploitation shows where emergent patterns often come from: from exploration that was allowed to happen

Read more: the full text

To go deeper, see 21 Plan and Adaptation (a plan combined with the willingness to change it along the way) and 22 Mission Command (setting the objective and framework creates room for useful patterns from below); 19 Fog of Uncertainty explains why part of every strategy emerges only in action. 79 Exploration and Exploitation shows where emergent patterns often come from: from exploration that was allowed to happen.

The action steps5 things you can actually do

  1. Put last year’s plan next to what you actually did, and mark what emerged without being planned.

  2. Ask people at the edges of your area what is working better for them than intended.

  3. Test every pattern against your mission and your values before you strengthen it.

  4. Deliberately make viable patterns your course: with resources, clear responsibility and clear words.

  5. Set a framework of objectives and limits, and let the details emerge along the way, except where mistakes would be very costly.

The reflection questions3 questions: What do you do regularly today that was never in any plan?
  1. What do you do regularly today that was never in any plan?
  2. Who in your area knows sooner than you do what works, and how do you hear about it?
  3. Which pattern should you make binding, and which should you end?

Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.

To finish
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
  1. From above: a straight teal line across a surface
  2. Many small dots set off and veer diagonally toward a mist-blue circle that the line does not touch
  3. From their tracks a gold trail condenses, part of the straight line fades, and a frame settles around the gold trail
Strategy Check

What pattern do your actions reveal?

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In context

Group 9: Markets and Organizations

Guiding question: How does an organization win in the long run?

Stage 3 of 5: Choose the path

Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.

More about the origin

Background: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin

Examples

The principle in practice

From the different spheres of society.

Business

Honda in America and Emergent Strategy

In 1959, Honda sets out to sell big motorcycles in the United States. Success comes with a small motorbike that its own employees had brought along just for running errands. The strategy emerged in action, not in the plan.

Emergent Strategy
EducationFamily

Maria Montessori, the Casa dei Bambini and Emergent Strategy

In 1907, the physician Maria Montessori takes charge of caring for children in a poor district of Rome. She does not arrive with her famous method ready-made; she develops it on site by observing what the children do.

Emergent Strategy
Media

Chris Messina, the Hashtag and Emergent Strategy

In 2007, the user Chris Messina suggests grouping posts on Twitter with the pound sign. Twitter shows little interest, users do it anyway, and only years later does the company build the hashtag into its product. One of the best-known features of the internet was never planned.

Emergent Strategy
Business

Series: Silicon Valley

In the comedy series “Silicon Valley” (2014–2019), a programmer founds a start-up whose business model keeps changing. The series shows satirically how strategy emerges in action, and also where constant changes of course lead to chaos.

Emergent Strategy
FAQ

Questions about Emergent Strategy

What does the principle of Emergent Strategy say?

Strategy arises not only from plans but also from patterns in what people actually do. The task of leadership is to recognize these patterns, test them and deliberately pursue the viable ones.

Where does the principle come from?

Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters described it in 1985 in their article “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent.” It became known above all through the debate about Honda’s success in the United States.

What examples are there?

Honda found its success in the United States with a small motorbike instead of big machines, Maria Montessori developed her method through observation, and the hashtag grew out of the way Twitter users used the platform.

How well is Emergent Strategy supported by research?

Evidence: moderate – the distinction is conceptually well developed and derived from cases; the sources do not measure whether recognizing patterns leads to better results, and the flagship example, Honda, is disputed.

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