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19Principle · Group 3 · Anchor principle

Fog of Uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty

“Because you never know the whole situation, you have to decide with judgment instead of waiting for a certainty that will not come.”

Much of what you base your actions on remains unclear. You never know exactly what others are planning, what will happen in the next hour or which of your information is accurate.

Group 3: Knowledge, Uncertainty and LeadershipT1 Classical Theory of War
Go to the in-depth section ↓
A golden dot stands in a grid of mist-blue squares; only the three squares around it are clear, and a teal arc runs down like an hourglass while it waits and the fog stays. Then the dot takes a small step, several squares clear, and above one square a range made of two short lines appears instead of a single mark.
In short

Because you never know the whole situation, you have to decide with judgment instead of waiting for a certainty that will not come.

What it’s about: Much of what you base your actions on remains unclear. You never know exactly what others are planning, what will happen in the next hour or which of your information is accurate. Reports contradict each other, arrive too late or are wrong. More information helps, but it never clears the fog completely.

In depth

The principle in detail

Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.

The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
In essence

Incomplete knowledge is not a flaw in the system; it is the system. You still have to decide.

It does not say
That you can do without reconnaissance. It improves the picture, but it never completes it.
It does not say
That every quick decision is a good one. Judgment grows out of experience, good advisers and simple tools.
It also says
If you pretend to others that you are certain, you take away their own judgment and make yourself vulnerable when things turn out differently.
The explanationHow the principle works and what matters

Two tasks follow from this.

  • You have to decide even though the picture is incomplete, because waiting is not a safe choice but a different kind of risk.
  • And you have to name the uncertainty honestly so that others can judge for themselves.
The question

What certainty are you waiting for right now, even though it will not come?

The signs3 signs when you heed it · 2 when you overlook it
When you heed it
  • You give ranges instead of reassuring single figures.
  • Before a decision, you specify which sign will guide your next step.
  • You say openly what you don’t know.
When you overlook it
  • One more analysis follows, then one more expert opinion, and the moment passes.
  • “Unlikely” turns into “ruled out.” Decisions move up the hierarchy, where the picture is no clearer, only farther away.
The backgroundTradition T1 Classical Theory of War
  1. 1832
    OriginCarl von Clausewitz

    On War

  2. 1921
    SupplementedFrank H. Knight

    Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

  3. 2005
    SupplementedPhilip E. Tetlock

    Expert Political Judgment

  4. 2011
    SupplementedGerd Gigerenzer and Wolfgang Gaissmaier

    Heuristic Decision Making

  5. Tradition T1
    TraditionClassical Theory of War

    Carl von Clausewitz, Antoine-Henri Jomini, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, Frederick William Lanchester

    See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background

From Clausewitz’s “On War” (1832), Book I, Chapter 3, supplemented by Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty, Tetlock’s forecasting research and Gigerenzer’s work on rules of thumb.

The research4 sources: 1 classic, 1 theory, 1 primary study, 1 review · 1832–2011 · with limitations of the research
4 sources1832–2011 period1 classic1 theory1 primary study1 review
Strength of evidence
  1. weak
  2. moderate
  3. strong

That true uncertainty cannot be calculated away and that excessive certainty makes for poor forecasts is well documented; how judgment develops in the individual case is shown by the sources only in outline.

  1. 1832
    Classic
    Carl von Clausewitz

    “On War” (in German), Book I, Chapter 3, “On Military Genius”: Three quarters of the factors on which action is based lie in a fog; what is called for is the tact of judgment.

  2. 1921
    Theory
    Frank H. Knight

    “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit”: distinguishes risk, in which the distribution of outcomes is known, from uncertainty without that knowledge.

  3. 2005
    Primary study
    Philip E. Tetlock

    “Expert Political Judgment”: Many experts forecast hardly better than chance; the cautious ones who were willing to learn did best.

  4. 2011
    Review
    Gerd Gigerenzer and Wolfgang Gaissmaier

    “Heuristic Decision Making”: Under uncertainty, simple rules of thumb often perform better than elaborate models.

Where the research reaches its limits
  • Uncertainty is no excuse for what could have been found out.
  • Carl von Clausewitz’s “three quarters” are an image, not a measurement.
  • Without experience and honest review, judgment quickly turns into a gut decision.
  • The phrase “fog of war” itself appears only later, for example in 1896 in the work of Lonsdale Augustus Hale.
Read more: what research shows

The image comes from Carl von Clausewitz. In “On War,” Book I, Chapter 3, he calls war the realm of uncertainty: three quarters of the factors on which action is based lie in a fog. What is needed, therefore, is a fine, penetrating intellect that can sense the truth through the tact of its judgment. In 1921, Frank H. Knight distinguished measurable risk, in which the distribution of outcomes is known, from true uncertainty. In a study spanning many years, Philip E. Tetlock found that many experts did hardly better than chance in their political forecasts and that the cautious ones who were willing to learn did best. Gerd Gigerenzer shows that, under uncertainty, simple rules of thumb often perform better than complicated models.

The related principles17 Foreknowledge · 18 Friction · 22 Mission Command · 88 Scenario Thinking
ForeknowledgeScenario Thinking

To go deeper, see 17 Foreknowledge (reconnaissance is the most important antidote, even if it never clears the fog completely) and 88 Scenario Thinking (thinking through several possible futures)

Mission Command

22 Mission Command lets people on the ground decide when the picture is missing at the top

Friction

18 Friction complements it: fog and friction are the two reasons why plans turn out differently in reality

Read more: the full text

To go deeper, see 17 Foreknowledge (reconnaissance is the most important antidote, even if it never clears the fog completely) and 88 Scenario Thinking (thinking through several possible futures); 22 Mission Command lets people on the ground decide when the picture is missing at the top. 18 Friction complements it: fog and friction are the two reasons why plans turn out differently in reality.

The action steps5 things you can actually do

  1. For every important decision, set a point in time at which you will decide, even if the picture is still incomplete.

  2. Give assessments as a range and say what they are based on.

  3. Decide in advance on a sign that will tell you whether your first step is holding up, and base the next one on it.

  4. Wherever possible, choose a small step that clarifies or simplifies the situation instead of waiting for the big picture.

  5. In every situation briefing, separate three things: what you know, what you suspect and what you don’t know.
The reflection questions3 questions: Which decision are you putting off because you are waiting for certainty?
  1. Which decision are you putting off because you are waiting for certainty?
  2. When did you last give a range instead of a single number?
  3. What do you know for certain about your most important project, what do you only suspect and what don’t you know?

Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.

To finish
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
  1. A golden dot stands in a grid of mist-blue squares
  2. Only the three squares around it are clear, and a teal arc runs down like an hourglass while it waits and the fog stays
  3. Then the dot takes a small step, several squares clear, and above one square a range made of two short lines appears instead of a single mark
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In context

Group 3: Knowledge, Uncertainty and Leadership

Guiding question: What do you know, and how do you lead when you don’t know?

Stage 2 of 5: Understand the situation

  • Anchor principle of the group

    It names the condition the whole group responds to: because you never know everything, you need intelligence, plans that adapt and leadership that lets people decide on the spot.

    The other 9 principles in the group build on it.

  • TraditionClassical Theory of War

    Carl von Clausewitz, Antoine-Henri Jomini, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, Frederick William Lanchester

Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.

More about the origin

Background: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin

Examples

The principle in practice

From the different spheres of society.

Government

Ben Sliney, 9/11 and the Fog of Uncertainty

On September 11, 2001, Ben Sliney is on his first day as National Operations Manager at the command center of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Without knowing how many aircraft have been hijacked, he orders every plane over the United States to land. Around 4,200 aircraft come down.

Fog of Uncertainty
Education

The L’Aquila Earthquake and the Fog of Uncertainty

In the spring of 2009, the ground in the Abruzzo region has been shaking again and again for months. Experts are asked to assess the situation, but what reaches the public is mainly reassurance. A few days later, 308 people die. This counterexample shows what happens when uncertainty is not stated honestly.

Fog of Uncertainty
Government

Dwight D. Eisenhower, D-Day and the Fog of Uncertainty

In early June 1944, the largest landing in history depends on a weather forecast that no one can guarantee. Dwight D. Eisenhower postpones by one day, then seizes a narrow gap and writes down in advance that the blame is his if it fails.

Fog of Uncertainty
Government

Movie: Eye in the Sky

A drone circles over a house in Nairobi. Inside, two suicide bombers are getting ready; outside, a girl is selling bread. The film shows how people in many places at once have to make life-and-death decisions with incomplete knowledge, and how seductive numbers that feign certainty can be.

Fog of Uncertainty
FAQ

Questions about the Fog of Uncertainty

What does the Fog of Uncertainty say?

A large part of the situation always remains unclear, no matter how much information you gather. You therefore decide with judgment and name the uncertainty honestly instead of waiting for certainty.

Where does the Fog of Uncertainty come from?

The image comes from Carl von Clausewitz, who writes in “On War” (Book I, Chapter 3) that three quarters of the factors in war lie in a fog. Research on risk and forecasting, for example by Frank H. Knight and Philip E. Tetlock, has taken up the idea and expanded it.

What examples are there?

Ben Sliney on September 11, 2001, Dwight D. Eisenhower before D-Day and, as a counterexample, the risk communication before the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Then there is the film “Eye in the Sky.”

How well is the Fog of Uncertainty supported by research?

Evidence: moderate – that true uncertainty cannot be calculated away and that excessive certainty makes for poor forecasts is well documented; how judgment develops in the individual case is shown by the sources only in outline.

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