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17Principle · Group 3

Foreknowledge

Competitive intelligence

“If you know early and reliably what the other side intends, you can act before it does; that is why good knowledge is often worth more than additional strength.”

Foreknowledge is knowledge of other people’s intentions before they act on them.

Group 3: Knowledge, Uncertainty and LeadershipT2 Eastern Strategy
Go to the in-depth section ↓
A golden circle draws teal lines around itself on every side like walls and grows paler as it does, while behind a mist-blue frame a dot can only be guessed at as a shadow. A small golden point of light travels across from the other side and points to one spot with an arc; the circle releases the other lines, places a single golden line there, and the shadow dot runs into it at exactly that spot.
In short

If you know early and reliably what the other side intends, you can act before it does; that is why good knowledge is often worth more than additional strength.

What it’s about: Foreknowledge is knowledge of other people’s intentions before they act on them. Strengths and weaknesses can often be estimated from the outside. But what someone plans to do, where they are heading and when they will move is something you only learn if you have access to their thinking. With this knowledge you can prepare, step aside or get there first, and a weaker side can beat a stronger one.

In depth

The principle in detail

Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.

The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
In essence

The most valuable information concerns intentions. If you know them in time, you can shape events instead of having to react.

It does not say
That anything goes when it comes to gaining knowledge. How you obtain it matters.
It does not say
That knowledge replaces the decision. Even good foreknowledge is, in the end, a probability.
It also says
Knowledge of the past is no certainty about the future.
The explanationIn everyday leadership, foreknowledge rarely means espionage.

In everyday leadership, foreknowledge rarely means espionage.

Mostly it means closeness.

  • Foreknowledge does not come from guessing.
  • It comes from patient listening, usually to people close to the other side.
  • It can be wrong, and it loses its value if you act on it too openly and give away your source.
The question

What will you only find out when it is too late, and who could tell you today?

The signs3 signs when you heed it · 3 when you overlook it
When you heed it
  • You talk to people before conflicts break out into the open.
  • You check leads before you act on them.
  • Those who confide in you are not exposed because of it.
When you overlook it
  • You start gathering information only once the crisis is here.
  • You mistake assumptions for knowledge.
  • You set aside warnings that don’t fit your picture.
The backgroundTradition T2 Eastern Strategy
  1. 5th c. BC
    OriginSun Tzu

    The Art of War,

  2. 1962
    SupplementedRoberta Wohlstetter

    Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision

  3. 1978
    SupplementedRichard K. Betts

    Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable

  4. Tradition T2
    TraditionEastern Strategy

    Sun Tzu, Kautilya, the Thirty-Six Stratagems, the Tao Te Ching, Miyamoto Musashi, François Jullien

    See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background

From Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War,” Chapter 13 on the use of spies (English translation by Lionel Giles, 1910), supplemented by Roberta Wohlstetter’s and Richard K. Betts’s research on warning and surprise.

The research4 sources: 2 classics, 1 case study, 1 theory · 1832–1978 · with limitations of the research
4 sources1832–1978 period2 classics1 case study1 theory
Strength of evidence
  1. weak
  2. moderate
  3. strong

The sources mainly use cases to show how hard it is to gain and interpret reliable foreknowledge; that it is often worth more than additional strength is an inference.

  1. 5th c. BCtrans. 1910
    Classic
    Sun Tzu

    “The Art of War,” Chapter 13: Foreknowledge comes from people who know the enemy’s situation; there are five kinds of spies, and the converted spy is the most important.

  2. 1832
    Classic
    Carl von Clausewitz

    “On War” (in German), Book I, Chapter 6: A large part of the intelligence received in war is contradictory, an even larger part is false, and by far the largest part is uncertain.

  3. 1962
    Case study
    Roberta Wohlstetter

    “Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision”: In 1941 the right signals were drowned out by the noise of false and contradictory reports.

  4. 1978
    Theory
    Richard K. Betts

    “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable”: Failures often lie in interpreting and believing, not in collecting.

Where the research reaches its limits

Carl von Clausewitz was skeptical of every report from the field. Foreknowledge can be deceptive, especially when the other side deliberately lays false trails, and the way it is obtained raises ethical questions.

Read more: what research shows

The principle comes from the thirteenth chapter of “The Art of War,” attributed to Sun Tzu. In essence, it says that foreknowledge cannot be had from spirits, from comparisons with earlier events or from calculation, but only from people who know the enemy’s situation. Modern research on intelligence work mainly shows the flip side. In 1962, Roberta Wohlstetter examined why the United States was taken by surprise at Pearl Harbor in 1941 despite many warning signs: the right signals were drowned out by the noise of false and contradictory reports. In 1978, Richard K. Betts argued that intelligence failures are inevitable because the problem often lies not in collecting but in interpreting and believing. That knowledge is worth more than additional strength is shown by cases such as Midway in 1942, not by measurement.

The related principles16 Know the Enemy and Yourself · 19 Fog of Uncertainty · 25 OODA Loop · 26 Deception
Know the Enemy and YourselfOODA Loop

To go deeper, see 16 Know the Enemy and Yourself (foreknowledge is the basis for knowing the other side) and 25 OODA Loop (if you know sooner, you observe, decide and act faster)

DeceptionFog of Uncertainty

It stands in tension with 26 Deception, the other side’s countermeasure, and with 19 Fog of Uncertainty: all knowledge remains incomplete

Read more: the full text

To go deeper, see 16 Know the Enemy and Yourself (foreknowledge is the basis for knowing the other side) and 25 OODA Loop (if you know sooner, you observe, decide and act faster). It stands in tension with 26 Deception, the other side’s countermeasure, and with 19 Fog of Uncertainty: all knowledge remains incomplete.

The action steps5 things you can actually do
  1. Create regular opportunities to hear early what others are planning: one-on-ones, customer visits, walks through the workplace.

  2. Pay more attention to how people behave than to what they say they think, for example, to what customers actually buy.

  3. Check every important report against a second, independent source before you act on it.

  4. Protect your sources: act in a way that lets no one work out who told you something.

  5. For every warning, write down why you believe it or not, and check later whether you were right.

The reflection questions3 questions: What have you found out in recent months only after it had already happened?
  1. What have you found out in recent months only after it had already happened?
  2. Who around you knows earlier than you what customers, employees or partners are planning?
  3. Which warning did you last dismiss because it didn’t fit your picture?

Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.

To finish
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
  1. A golden circle draws teal lines around itself on every side like walls and grows paler as it does, while behind a mist-blue frame a dot can only be guessed at as a shadow
  2. A small golden point of light travels across from the other side and points to one spot with an arc
  3. The circle releases the other lines, places a single golden line there, and the shadow dot runs into it at exactly that spot
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In context

Group 3: Knowledge, Uncertainty and Leadership

Guiding question: What do you know, and how do you lead when you don’t know?

Stage 2 of 5: Understand the situation

Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.

More about the origin

Background: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin

Examples

The principle in practice

From the different spheres of society.

Government

The Zimmermann Telegram and Foreknowledge

In January 1917, the German Empire secretly offers Mexico an alliance against the United States. British codebreakers read the message, and now the problem is a different one: How do you use knowledge without revealing where you got it?

Foreknowledge
MediaBusiness

Netflix, House of Cards and Foreknowledge

In 2011, Netflix orders the series “House of Cards” for two seasons at once, without a pilot. The company knows from its viewing data what its audience wants to watch and can therefore seize the opportunity while others still want to test.

Foreknowledge
Government

The Battle of Midway and Foreknowledge

In June 1942, the U.S. Navy is waiting for the Japanese fleet at Midway because its codebreakers have decrypted the attack plan. The numerically inferior American side sinks four Japanese aircraft carriers. Here, foreknowledge makes up for missing strength.

Foreknowledge
Government

Movie: Zero Dark Thirty

“Zero Dark Thirty” tells the story of the CIA’s years-long hunt for Osama bin Laden from the point of view of an analyst. The film shows how laboriously foreknowledge is built: from a name, many dead ends and a certainty that in the end is only a probability.

Foreknowledge
FAQ

Questions about Foreknowledge

What does the principle of Foreknowledge say?

Knowledge of the other side’s intentions is the most valuable raw material of any strategy. If you have it in time, you can act before the other side does.

Where does the principle come from?

From the thirteenth chapter of Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War,” which deals with the use of spies. There Sun Tzu calls for seeking foreknowledge from people who know the enemy’s situation.

What examples are there?

The Zimmermann Telegram of 1917, the Battle of Midway in 1942 and Netflix’s decision to back “House of Cards.” Then there is the film “Zero Dark Thirty.”

How well is Foreknowledge supported by research?

Evidence: weak – the sources mainly use cases to show how hard it is to gain and interpret reliable foreknowledge; that it is often worth more than additional strength is an inference.

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