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21Principle · Group 3

Plan and Adaptation

Adapting your strategic plan

“A plan gives you direction, but as soon as reality responds, you have to adapt it without losing sight of the objective.”

No plan survives its first contact with reality unchanged. You need one anyway.

Group 3: Knowledge, Uncertainty and LeadershipT1 Classical Theory of War
Go to the in-depth section ↓
A dashed line connects a starting point with a golden target circle. A dot sets off until a crossbar cuts the line and it fades to mist-blue. The target circle keeps glowing; a new arc in teal traces itself around the obstacle, later a second one, and the dot reaches the target by a completely different route.
In short

A plan gives you direction, but as soon as reality responds, you have to adapt it without losing sight of the objective.

What it’s about: No plan survives its first contact with reality unchanged. You need one anyway. It sets out what you want to achieve, with what means and in what order. As you plan, you come to know the situation well enough to see later what you can change. That is why the principle separates two things: the objective is fixed, while the way is an assumption that has to prove itself.

In depth

The principle in detail

Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.

The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
In essence

Hold on to the objective and treat the way as an assumption that you test against reality.

It does not say
That planning is pointless. Helmuth von Moltke the Elder planned the deployment by rail down to the last detail and at the same time expected the plan not to last long.
It does not say
That you should change course at every headwind. If you do, you leave your people without orientation.
It also says
Adaptation has a price, and you plan for it.
The explanationGood adaptation starts with looking closely.
  • Good adaptation starts with looking closely.
  • It keeps what works and replaces only what no longer does.
  • That costs time, money and nerves, and it never quite stops.
The question

What is the objective here, and what is only the way?

The signs3 signs when you heed it · 3 when you overlook it
When you heed it
  • Your team can state the objective in one sentence, even after the way has changed.
  • Before you decide, you look at what people actually do.
  • You justify changes with what you have observed.
When you overlook it
  • You stick with a project because so much has already gone into it.
  • Or you change direction after every complaint, and no one knows anymore what applies.
  • In hindsight, every failure looks predictable to you.
The backgroundTradition T1 Classical Theory of War
  1. 1871
    OriginHelmuth von Moltke the Elder

    On Strategy

  2. 1985
    SupplementedHenry Mintzberg and James A. Waters

    Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent

  3. 2011
    SupplementedEric Ries

    The Lean Startup

  4. Tradition T1
    TraditionClassical Theory of War

    Carl von Clausewitz, Antoine-Henri Jomini, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, Frederick William Lanchester

    See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background

From the essay “On Strategy” (1871) by Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, supplemented by Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters, “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent” (1985), and Eric Ries, “The Lean Startup” (2011).

The research3 sources: 2 theories, 1 classic · 1871–2011 · with limitations of the research
3 sources1871–2011 period2 theories1 classic
Strength of evidence
  1. weak
  2. moderate
  3. strong

Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters support the view that strategy partly takes shape only in action; the rule “fixed objective, flexible way” is a lesson of experience without measurement.

  1. 1871
    Classic
    Helmuth von Moltke the Elder

    “Über Strategie” (“On Strategy”), in “Moltkes Militärische Werke” (in German), Vol. II, Part 2: No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force; strategy is a system of expedients.

  2. 1985
    Theory
    Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters

    “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent”: deliberate and emergent strategy as the ends of a continuum along which real strategies lie, from the planned to the imposed.

  3. 2011
    Theory
    Eric Ries

    “The Lean Startup”: rapid prototypes, validated learning and incremental releases; a change of course based on user data is called a “pivot.”

Where the research reaches its limits
  • Adaptation can turn into arbitrariness if the objective isn’t clear.
  • If you change course at every sign of resistance, you lose your people’s trust and the power of concentration, and some situations call for exactly the opposite: perseverance.
  • The art lies in telling whether a plan is failing against reality or only against the first difficulty.
Read more: what research shows

In his 1871 essay “On Strategy” (“Über Strategie”), Moltke wrote that no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force; strategy, he said, is a system of expedients. That is a planner’s lesson of experience, not a measurement. In 1985, Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters described deliberate and emergent strategy as the two ends of a continuum. What organizations actually do usually lies in between, because part of the strategy takes shape only in action. In 2011, Eric Ries’s “The Lean Startup” popularized the “pivot,” a deliberate change of course based on user data. None of these works directly compares whether a fixed objective with a flexible way holds up better than rigid persistence or drifting.

The related principles18 Friction · 22 Mission Command · 25 OODA Loop · 80 Emergent Strategy
FrictionOODA Loop

To go deeper, see 18 Friction (the resistance on which plans most often founder) and 25 OODA Loop (fast observation and decision as a technique of adaptation)

Mission Command

22 Mission Command shows how people on the ground adapt the way to the intent without waiting for new orders

Emergent Strategy

80 Emergent Strategy carries the idea over to companies: what they actually do often takes shape only in action

Read more: the full text

To go deeper, see 18 Friction (the resistance on which plans most often founder) and 25 OODA Loop (fast observation and decision as a technique of adaptation); 22 Mission Command shows how people on the ground adapt the way to the intent without waiting for new orders. 80 Emergent Strategy carries the idea over to companies: what they actually do often takes shape only in action.

The action steps5 things you can actually do
  1. For every major project, write down two things separately: the objective in one sentence and the way as a list of assumptions.
  2. Decide in advance how you will know that an assumption doesn’t hold: for example, a number, a deadline or feedback from customers.

  3. Schedule fixed points for review instead of deciding anew at every disruption.

  4. When you adapt, keep what still works, and tell your team explicitly what stays the same.

  5. When you meet resistance, check whether the way is failing against reality or only against the first difficulty. Get a second opinion on it.
The reflection questions3 questions for you or for a conversation
  1. Which of your projects are you still pursuing along the original path, even though the feedback says otherwise?
  2. Could your team state the objective of your most important project in one sentence?
  3. When did you last change direction because things got uncomfortable, and not because you had seen something new?

Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.

To finish
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
  1. A dashed line connects a starting point with a golden target circle
  2. A dot sets off until a crossbar cuts the line and it fades to mist-blue
  3. The target circle keeps glowing
  4. A new arc in teal traces itself around the obstacle, later a second one, and the dot reaches the target by a completely different route
Strategy Check

What is your objective, and what is only the way?

Get your profile across all 12 groups in about 10 to 15 minutes.

Start the Strategy Check
In context

Group 3: Knowledge, Uncertainty and Leadership

Guiding question: What do you know, and how do you lead when you don’t know?

Stage 2 of 5: Understand the situation

Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.

More about the origin

Background: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin

Examples

The principle in practice

From the different spheres of society.

Business

Kevin Systrom, Instagram and the Principle of Plan and Adaptation

In 2010, Kevin Systrom builds an overloaded app called Burbn. What excites users most is one feature: sharing photos. Systrom and Mike Krieger cut everything else. What remains becomes Instagram, which is sold two years later for $1 billion.

Plan and Adaptation
Faith

John Wesley, Field Preaching and the Principle of Plan and Adaptation

In 1739, many pulpits are closed to the Anglican clergyman John Wesley. Reluctantly, he follows his friend George Whitefield to Bristol, and on April 2 he preaches in the open air to about 3,000 people. The makeshift solution becomes the way of an entire movement.

Plan and Adaptation
Culture & Sports

Steven Spielberg, Jaws and the Principle of Plan and Adaptation

In 1974, the young Steven Spielberg is shooting a film about a great white shark. The mechanical shark keeps failing in the salt water. So Spielberg barely shows it and only hints at it. The breakdown turns into the suspense that makes “Jaws” the most successful film of its time in 1975.

Plan and Adaptation
BusinessGovernment

Movie: Sully

Shortly after takeoff in New York, both engines of an Airbus fail. The standard plan would be to return to the airport. Captain Chesley Sullenberger rejects it and lands on the Hudson. All 155 people on board survive. The film shows when you have to abandon a plan, and how to do it with discipline.

Plan and Adaptation
FAQ

Questions about the Principle of Plan and Adaptation

What does the Principle of Plan and Adaptation say?

A plan gives you direction, but it rarely survives the encounter with reality unchanged. That is why you hold on to the objective and keep adapting the way.

Where does the Principle of Plan and Adaptation come from?

It goes back to Helmuth von Moltke the Elder. In 1871 he wrote that no plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force, and he called strategy a system of expedients. Henry Mintzberg and Eric Ries developed the idea further for business.

What examples are there?

How well is the Principle of Plan and Adaptation supported by research?

Evidence: moderate – Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters support the view that strategy partly takes shape only in action; the rule “fixed objective, flexible way” is a lesson of experience without measurement.

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