The principle in detail
Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.
The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
The losers of a change know exactly what they will lose, and they fight. The winners don’t yet know what they will gain, and they wait.
- It does not say
- That all resistance is merely about protecting vested interests. Sometimes the resistance is right.
- It does not say
- That change has to be forced through. In teams, families and churches, support means preparation, allies and trust.
- It also says
- Silent agreement is not support. If you rely on it, you will stand alone in the first crisis.
The explanationThe principle is not a call to resignation but a guide to preparation.
The principle is not a call to resignation but a guide to preparation. If you know that resistance is coming, you win allies beforehand, involve those who will lose out, make early successes visible and allow opponents to adopt the new as their own.
Who loses something concrete through your change, and who gains without knowing it yet?
The signs3 signs when you heed it · 3 when you overlook it
- Before you start, you clarify who loses what, and you talk to those people first.
- You look for allies and backing before you announce the new.
- You make early successes visible.
- You consider your reasons so obvious that you expect no resistance.
- You take silence in a meeting for agreement.
- You attack opponents personally.
The backgroundFrom Niccolò Machiavelli’s book “The Prince” (written in 1513, printed in 1532), Chapter 6. · T4 Political Prudence
- 1513OriginNiccolò Machiavelli
The Prince
- 1962SupplementedEverett M. Rogers
Diffusion of Innovations
- 1988SupplementedWilliam Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser
Status Quo Bias in Decision Making
- Tradition T4TraditionPolitical Prudence
Thucydides, Niccolò Machiavelli, Baltasar Gracián
See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background
From Niccolò Machiavelli’s book “The Prince” (written in 1513, printed in 1532), Chapter 6. Supplemented by the behavioral economics of William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser and of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, and by Everett M. Rogers’s research on the diffusion of innovations.
The research4 sources: 1 classic, 1 experiment, 1 theory, 1 primary study · 1532–2019 · with limitations of the research
- weak
- moderate
- strong
Status quo bias and loss aversion are well documented in many studies; the principle infers from them that change therefore needs more strength than its reasons would suggest.
- 1962Everett M. Rogers
“Diffusion of Innovations”: innovations spread through successive groups of adopters, from the innovators to the laggards.
- 1988William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser
“Status Quo Bias in Decision Making”: in decision tasks, people frequently stick with the status quo they are offered; the effect grows with the number of alternatives.
- 2019Pierre Azoulay, Christian Fons-Rosen and Joshua S. Graff Zivin
“Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time?”: after the death of eminent scientists, their collaborators’ contributions decline, outsiders publish more, and new researchers enter the field.
- Not all resistance is about protecting vested interests.
- Many innovations are bad, and then resistance protects against harm.
- Niccolò Machiavelli assumes that the new is better; every reformer first has to show that it is.
- The studies measure individual decisions and the development of research fields, not the balance of power within an organization.
Read more: what research shows
In Chapter 6 of “The Prince,” Niccolò Machiavelli writes that nothing is more difficult and uncertain than founding new institutions. All those who benefit from the old order become opponents, and the future winners are only lukewarm defenders, out of fear of the opponents and out of disbelief in the new. In decision experiments in 1988, William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser showed that people frequently stick with the status quo they are offered. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky use loss aversion to explain why losses weigh more heavily than gains of the same size. In 1962, Everett M. Rogers described how innovations spread slowly from innovators to early adopters to the majority. In 2019, Pierre Azoulay, Christian Fons-Rosen and Joshua S. Graff Zivin found that after the death of eminent scientists, more outsiders publish in their field.
The related principles55 Strategic Narrative · 76 Disruption · 81 Path Dependence · 82 Loss Aversion
To go deeper, see 82 Loss Aversion (why the losers of the new fight harder than the winners) and 81 Path Dependence (earlier decisions create habits and interests that slow down the new)
76 Disruption shows how established companies fail because of this resistance
55 Strategic Narrative shows how resistance wins when it dresses up interests as a story of honor and identity
Read more: the full text
To go deeper, see 82 Loss Aversion (why the losers of the new fight harder than the winners) and 81 Path Dependence (earlier decisions create habits and interests that slow down the new). 76 Disruption shows how established companies fail because of this resistance; 55 Strategic Narrative shows how resistance wins when it dresses up interests as a story of honor and identity.
The action steps5 things you can actually do
Before any change, write down whom the old order benefits and what exactly these people will lose.
- Talk to the losers first. Offer them a place in the new order instead of fighting them.
Win allies and backing from above before you go public.
- Let people experience the benefits early: with a trial run, a pilot team, a first visible success.
- Check honestly whether the resistance is right. Maybe the new thing is not good enough yet.
The reflection questions3 questions: Who loses something concrete through the change you are planning right now?
- Who loses something concrete through the change you are planning right now?
- Who would gain but doesn’t know it yet, and what would that person need in order to help?
- Whom would you need to talk to before you make your plan public?
Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
- A golden circle is pushed up an arc
- At the top, a few teal dots push back hard, and at the bottom a large area of mist-blue dots lies still, and the circle rolls back
- On the second attempt, dots break away from the area and help push, a teal dot from the top switches over to the circle, and the circle reaches the crest
How the principle shows up in practice
Ignaz Semmelweis
In 1847, he drastically reduces the death rate among new mothers through handwashing, but the medical profession rejects his teaching because it incriminates the doctors themselves.
Rupert Murdoch and Wapping
In 1986, the print unions strike for a year against the new technology and lose to a well-prepared reformer.
The Gregorian calendar
The right reform of 1582 is rejected by Protestant countries for more than a century because it comes from the pope.
Who loses out through your plan?
Get your profile across all 12 groups in about 10 to 15 minutes.
Start the Strategy CheckGroup 7: People, Morale and Power
Guiding question: What moves people to go along or to resist?
Stage 4 of 5: Act with others
- Related principles
Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.
More about the originBackground: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin
