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32Principle · Group 4

Surprise

Element of surprise in business

“If you act at a time, in a place or in a way the other side does not expect, you gain, for a short time, a superiority you could not have achieved by strength alone.”

Surprise is an advantage that arises in the other side’s mind.

Group 4: Deception and IndirectionT1 Classical Theory of War
Go to the in-depth section ↓
A large mist-blue circle is surrounded by arcs like shields, all pointing in one direction, and a small golden dot approaches the open side along a different line. Then a clock arc runs down, the arcs turn to follow, and the gold loses its shine.
In short

If you act at a time, in a place or in a way the other side does not expect, you gain, for a short time, a superiority you could not have achieved by strength alone.

What it’s about: Surprise is an advantage that arises in the other side’s mind. You act at a time, in a place or in a way it is not prepared for. Then it cannot bring its forces to bear. It hesitates, misreads the situation and decides badly. In this way a small force can achieve a great deal.

In depth

The principle in detail

Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.

The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
In essence

Surprise creates an advantage because every preparation rests on expectations. It works in the other side’s mind, not through greater strength.

It also says
The advantage is short-lived. It pays off only if you use it at once.
It does not say
That secrecy alone makes a surprise. What matters is how the other side interprets what it sees.
It does not say
That surprise is a good tool in relationships. Where people depend on reliability, it costs trust.
The explanationSurprise belongs in competition and in conflict.

Surprise belongs in competition and in conflict. Your team, your partners and your family need reliability; if you keep surprising them, you lose their trust.

The question

What is the other side not expecting, and which signal are you yourself overlooking right now?

The signs3 signs when you heed it · 3 when you overlook it
When you heed it
  • You plan what comes after the first moment and then act quickly.
  • You ask what your competitor expects.
  • You take warning signs seriously even when they do not fit your picture.
When you overlook it
  • You keep plans secret and are surprised that they still surprise nobody.
  • A surprise success fizzles out because no next step is ready.
  • You dismiss signs of change as false alarms.
The backgroundFrom Carl von Clausewitz’s work “On War” (1832), Book III, Chapter 9. · T1 Classical Theory of War
  1. 5th c. BC
    SupplementedSun Tzu

    The Art of War

  2. 1832
    OriginCarl von Clausewitz

    On War

  3. 1962
    SupplementedRoberta Wohlstetter

    Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision

  4. 1982
    SupplementedRichard K. Betts

    Surprise Attack

  5. Tradition T1
    TraditionClassical Theory of War

    Carl von Clausewitz, Antoine-Henri Jomini, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, Frederick William Lanchester

    See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background

From Carl von Clausewitz’s work “On War” (1832), Book III, Chapter 9. Supplemented by Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” and the case studies by Roberta Wohlstetter (1962) and Richard K. Betts (1982).

The research4 sources: 2 classics, 2 case studies · 1832–1982 · with limitations of the research
4 sources1832–1982 period2 classics2 case studies
Strength of evidence
  1. weak
  2. moderate
  3. strong

Carl von Clausewitz provides a classical theory without measurement; the case studies by Roberta Wohlstetter and Richard K. Betts mainly support the side of those surprised.

  1. 5th c. BC
    Classic
    Sun Tzu

    “The Art of War,” Chapter 1 (translated by Lionel Giles, 1910): attack the opponent where it is unprepared, and appear where you are not expected.

  2. 1832
    Classic
    Carl von Clausewitz

    “On War” (in German), Book III, Chapter 9, “Surprise”: a means to superiority, carried by secrecy and rapidity; far more common in tactics than in strategy.

  3. 1962
    Case study
    Roberta Wohlstetter

    “Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision”: the warnings were there but were drowned out by the noise of many other signals.

  4. 1982
    Case study
    Richard K. Betts

    “Surprise Attack”: surprises mostly rest on misread clues and hesitant decisions, not on missing information.

Where the research reaches its limits
  • Carl von Clausewitz himself considered surprise rare in strategy, because large undertakings can hardly be concealed.
  • Its advantage is limited in time: against an opponent who is stronger in the long run, it can win a battle and lose the war.
  • In relationships built on trust, it is usually the wrong tool.
  • The transfer to companies and leadership is an inference, not a finding of the sources themselves.
Read more: what research shows

The classic account comes from Carl von Clausewitz. In the third book of “On War” (1832), he calls surprise the means to superiority at the decisive point; in J. J. Graham’s translation, “Secrecy and rapidity are the two factors of this product.” If it succeeds, confusion and broken courage follow on the enemy’s side. At the same time, he considers it far more common in tactics than in strategy. Sun Tzu had already advised attacking the opponent where it is unprepared. Research on surprise attacks has mainly studied the side of those who were surprised. In 1962, Roberta Wohlstetter showed in the case of Pearl Harbor that the warnings were there but were drowned out by the noise of many other signals. In 1982, Richard K. Betts reached a similar conclusion: surprises rarely succeed because information is missing; mostly they succeed because clues are misread and decisions are delayed.

The related principles19 Fog of Uncertainty · 26 Deception · 41 Speed · 43 Initiative
Deception

Surprise is prepared by 26 Deception, which steers the other side’s expectations

Speed

Next to secrecy, its most important precondition is 41 Speed

Initiative

43 Initiative shows that only those who use the advantage at once get to keep it

Fog of Uncertainty

19 Fog of Uncertainty explains the side of those surprised: they see only what they expect to see

Read more: the full text

Surprise is prepared by 26 Deception, which steers the other side’s expectations; next to secrecy, its most important precondition is 41 Speed. 43 Initiative shows that only those who use the advantage at once get to keep it. 19 Fog of Uncertainty explains the side of those surprised: they see only what they expect to see.

The action steps5 things you can actually do
  1. Before a competitive move, ask: what does the other side expect in terms of time, place and method?
  2. Plan the second step before the first. Decide what you will do in the days after the surprise.

  3. Collect the clues that contradict your picture of the competitor, and review them once a month with someone who thinks differently.

  4. Make sure that scattered knowledge in your area comes together in one place.

  5. Don’t surprise your own team with decisions it should have known about beforehand. Within the team, reliability counts for more than an element of surprise.
The reflection questions3 questions: What does your most important competitor expect from you, and what does it not expect?
  1. What does your most important competitor expect from you, and what does it not expect?
  2. Which clue from the past few months does not fit your picture, and what if it is true?
  3. Who was the last person you surprised who actually needed reliability?

Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.

To finish
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
  1. A large mist-blue circle is surrounded by arcs like shields, all pointing in one direction, and a small golden dot approaches the open side along a different line
  2. Then a clock arc runs down, the arcs turn to follow, and the gold loses its shine
Strategy Check

What is the other side not expecting?

Get your profile across all 12 groups in about 10 to 15 minutes.

Start the Strategy Check
In context

Group 4: Deception and Indirection

Guiding question: How do you reach your goal without charging head-on?

Stage 3 of 5: Choose the path

Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.

More about the origin

Background: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin

Examples

The principle in practice

From the different spheres of society.

Government

The Yom Kippur War and Surprise

On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria attack Israel on the holiest day of the Jewish year. The warning signs were there, but Israel’s leadership read them through a fixed picture of the opponent, and it was precisely this picture that made the surprise possible.

Surprise
Faith

Benedict XVI and Surprise

On February 11, 2013, at a routine gathering, Pope Benedict XVI announces in Latin that he is resigning his office. No pope had taken this step in almost 600 years. The time, place and form left hardly anyone prepared, and so he himself determined how the transition would unfold.

Surprise
Culture & Sports

Dick Fosbury and Surprise

At the 1968 Olympic Games in Mexico City, Dick Fosbury goes over the bar backward and wins gold. His rivals had seen the technique but not taken it seriously. The surprise lay not in concealment but in a way nobody expected.

Surprise
Government

Movie: Tora! Tora! Tora!

The 1970 film tells the story of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, from both sides. It shows that the United States had enough clues, and why it was surprised anyway.

Surprise
FAQ

Questions about Surprise

What does the principle of Surprise say?

If you act at a time, in a place or in a way nobody expects, you gain a superiority you could not have achieved by strength alone. This advantage is short-lived and has to be used at once.

Where does the principle of Surprise come from?

The classic account is found in the third book of Carl von Clausewitz’s “On War” (1832). Sun Tzu had already advised striking the opponent where it is unprepared.

What are some examples of Surprise?

The attack in the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Benedict XVI’s resignation in 2013 and Dick Fosbury’s jump to Olympic gold in 1968.

How well is Surprise supported by research?

Evidence: moderate – Carl von Clausewitz provides a classical theory without measurement; the case studies by Roberta Wohlstetter and Richard K. Betts mainly support the side of those surprised.

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