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44Principle · Group 6

Annihilation and Exhaustion

Annihilation and exhaustion strategy

“Decide deliberately whether to bet on a quick, decisive blow or to wear your opponent down over a long time, and align your means, patience and expectations accordingly.”

There are two basic ways to win a conflict. Annihilation means: you look for the point where you are superior and quickly stake everything there on a decision. Exhaustion means: you make sure that, over time, resisting costs the opponent more than giving in; you avoid their strength and keep up the pressure in many small steps.

Group 6: Time and TempoT1 Classical Theory of War
Go to the in-depth section ↓
Two circles face each other, each with a reserve bar of stacked dots; at first a golden arc strikes once, and the other circle topples. Rewind: the arc strikes thin air, fine lines tap the striker’s bar, and it sinks dot by dot while a clock made of dots runs, until both bars stand side by side.
In short

Decide deliberately whether to bet on a quick, decisive blow or to wear your opponent down over a long time, and align your means, patience and expectations accordingly.

What it’s about: There are two basic ways to win a conflict. Annihilation means: you look for the point where you are superior and quickly stake everything there on a decision. Exhaustion means: you make sure that, over time, resisting costs the opponent more than giving in; you avoid their strength and keep up the pressure in many small steps. Neither of the two ways is better in itself.

In depth

The principle in detail

Three steps through the principle: grasp it, place it, put it to work. Open each topic on its own.

The core messageCore statement and 3 clarifications
In essence

Choose your path deliberately according to your means, and align your patience and expectations with it.

It does not say
That one of the two paths is the true one. The officers of the Great General Staff saw annihilation as the true path, and Hans Delbrück disagreed with them.
It does not say
That exhaustion means waiting. It demands constant pressure in many small steps.
It also says
Set an exit point. If you can foresee that you will not be able to hold out, you are better off getting out early.
The explanationIf you are superior but have few reserves, you have to seek the decision before your strength runs out.
  • Every conflict is also a calculation of costs and endurance.
  • If you are superior but have few reserves, you have to seek the decision before your strength runs out.
  • If you have more backing and patience, you can bet on exhaustion, but for that you need constant pressure and people who can hold out for a long time without news of success.
The question

Is time working for you or for the other side?

The signs3 signs when you heed it · 3 when you overlook it
When you heed it
  • Before a conflict, you calculate how long you can hold out and how long the other side can.
  • You tell your team openly whether to expect a quick blow or a long road.
  • You know at what point you will stop.
When you overlook it
  • A dispute, a price war or a project drags on without anyone having decided that it may take a long time.
  • You cling to the big decision even though you lack the means.
  • Supporters lose patience because there are no successes.
The backgroundTradition T1 Classical Theory of War
  1. 1832
    Carl von Clausewitz

    On War

  2. 1900–1920
    OriginHans Delbrück

    History of the Art of War

  3. 1974
    SupplementedJohn Maynard Smith

    The Theory of Games and the Evolution of Animal Conflicts

  4. Tradition T1
    TraditionClassical Theory of War

    Carl von Clausewitz, Antoine-Henri Jomini, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, Frederick William Lanchester

    See the tradition on the Origin page
Read more: the full background

From Hans Delbrück’s “History of the Art of War” (1900–1920), building on Carl von Clausewitz’s distinction between two kinds of war in “On War” (1832). Supplemented by John Maynard Smith’s game-theoretical model of the war of attrition (1974).

The research3 sources: 2 classics, 1 theory · 1832–1974 · with limitations of the research
3 sources1832–1974 period2 classics1 theory
Strength of evidence
  1. weak
  2. moderate
  3. strong

Two ideal types from military history and a mathematical model; whether a deliberate choice between them leads to better outcomes has not been studied.

  1. 1832
    Classic
    Carl von Clausewitz

    “On War,” note of July 10, 1827: two kinds of war, the overthrow of the enemy and conquests on the frontiers of his country (link: English translation of 1873).

  2. 1900–1920
    Classic
    Hans Delbrück

    “History of the Art of War”: the strategy of annihilation and the strategy of exhaustion as two basic forms; Frederick the Great as a strategist of exhaustion.

  3. 1974
    Theory
    John Maynard Smith

    “The Theory of Games and the Evolution of Animal Conflicts”: model of the war of attrition, in which both sides bear costs until one gives up.

Where the research reaches its limits
  • Annihilation and exhaustion are ideal types; most conflicts mix both forms.
  • Exhaustion often hits bystanders: in war, the civilian population; in business, customers and suppliers; in the family, the children.
  • And it can ruin both sides.
  • Not everyone can choose it: if you have few reserves, you cannot afford a long fight.
  • The rule of getting out early is a simplified conclusion from a model that John Maynard Smith developed for animal contests.
Read more: what research shows

The distinction comes from the Berlin historian Hans Delbrück. In his “History of the Art of War” (1900–1920), he contrasted the strategy of exhaustion with the strategy of annihilation, drawing on Carl von Clausewitz. In a note dated July 10, 1827, Clausewitz had distinguished two kinds of war: war that aims to overthrow the enemy, and war that seeks only conquests on the frontiers. Delbrück interpreted Frederick the Great as a strategist of exhaustion and was drawn into a long dispute over this with the Great General Staff. In 1974, John Maynard Smith formalized the war of attrition in a game-theoretical model: both sides bear costs until one gives up.

The related principles13 Culminating Point · 15 Logistics · 37 Strength of the Defense · 41 Speed
SpeedLogistics

To go deeper, see 41 Speed (annihilation thrives on speed) and 15 Logistics (exhaustion often targets supplies and reserves)

Culminating Point

13 Culminating Point shows what exhaustion is waiting for: that the attacker overextends his strength

Strength of the Defense

37 Strength of the Defense names the advantages that those who wage a war of exhaustion make use of

Read more: the full text

To go deeper, see 41 Speed (annihilation thrives on speed) and 15 Logistics (exhaustion often targets supplies and reserves); 13 Culminating Point shows what exhaustion is waiting for: that the attacker overextends his strength. 37 Strength of the Defense names the advantages that those who wage a war of exhaustion make use of.

The action steps5 things you can actually do

  1. For every ongoing conflict, ask yourself whether time is working for you or for the other side, and write down the reasons.

  2. Compare your reserves with those of the other side: money, time, support and nerves.

  3. Decide explicitly on one path, and tell those involved how long it is likely to take.

  4. Set an exit point beforehand: a sum, a date or an event at which you will decide anew.

  5. Check whom a long conflict will also hit, such as customers, suppliers or children, and factor in these costs.

The reflection questions3 questions: Which conflict are you caught up in right now, and is time working for you there?
  1. Which conflict are you caught up in right now, and is time working for you there?
  2. Have you slid into a war of attrition that you never chose?
  3. At what point would you get out, and who knows about it?

Take your time with one question. Write down your answer – or talk it over with someone you trust.

To finish
The picture to rememberThe animation once more, with an explanation
  1. Two circles face each other, each with a reserve bar of stacked dots
  2. At first a golden arc strikes once, and the other circle topples
  3. Rewind: the arc strikes thin air, fine lines tap the striker’s bar, and it sinks dot by dot while a clock made of dots runs, until both bars stand side by side
Strategy Check

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In context

Group 6: Time and Tempo

Guiding question: When do you act, and how fast?

Stage 3 of 5: Choose the path

Where the 92 principles come from: eight traditions of strategy, from classical war theory to dealing with uncertainty.

More about the origin

Background: WEGVISOR’s own selection from the strategy literature · More about the origin

Examples

The principle in practice

From the different spheres of society.

Government

Quintus Fabius Maximus, Hannibal and the Principle of Annihilation and Exhaustion

In 217 BC, Hannibal stands in Italy with his army and has defeated two Roman armies. The dictator Quintus Fabius Maximus refuses to fight the great battle and instead bets on slowly wearing the enemy down. Rome mocks him as the Delayer, until the defeat at Cannae shows what the rash decision costs.

Annihilation and Exhaustion
Culture & Sports

Anatoly Karpov, Garry Kasparov and the Principle of Annihilation and Exhaustion

In September 1984, the World Chess Championship between Anatoly Karpov and Garry Kasparov begins in Moscow. After 27 games, Karpov leads 5–0 and needs just one more win. But the match turns into a war of attrition and is called off without a winner after 48 games and five months.

Annihilation and Exhaustion
Business

Uber in China and the Principle of Annihilation and Exhaustion

Uber launches in China in 2014 and fights a price war with the domestic provider Didi in which both sides spend billions on discounts. After losses of more than a billion dollars a year, Uber gives up and sells its China business to Didi in August 2016.

Annihilation and Exhaustion
Business

Movie: A Civil Action

In “A Civil Action” (1998), a Boston lawyer sues two corporations because contaminated groundwater in a small town is alleged to have made children ill. He wants the big, quick win. The other side plays for time, procedure and costs until his law firm is finished.

Annihilation and Exhaustion
FAQ

Questions about the Principle of Annihilation and Exhaustion

What does the Principle of Annihilation and Exhaustion say?

It distinguishes two basic forms of strategy: defeating the opponent in a quick decision, or wearing them down over a long time. It requires you to choose deliberately which form suits your means and the situation.

Where does the principle come from?

It goes back to the historian Hans Delbrück, who worked it out in his “History of the Art of War” (1900–1920). He built on Carl von Clausewitz, who had distinguished two kinds of war.

What are some examples?

Quintus Fabius Maximus against Hannibal, the first world championship match between Anatoly Karpov and Garry Kasparov, and Uber’s price war in China. There is also the film “A Civil Action” and.

How well is the Principle of Annihilation and Exhaustion supported by research?

Evidence: weak – two ideal types from military history and a mathematical model; whether a deliberate choice between them leads to better outcomes has not been studied.

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